Welcome to the June Metro Vancouver Real Estate Market Update. Some have reported that there are “emerging signs of a recovery”. I don’t see it. The total sales number is around 25.8% below the 10-year June average while new listings are coming into the market at 12.7% above the 10-year June average. Like in recent months, listings are continuing to accumulate—now sitting 43.7% above the 10-year average.
I don’t see any improvements. The sales-to-active listing ratios are all lower. They are a measure of supply and demand. A lower ratio means a lower demand. In theory, ratios below 12% over extended periods put downward pressure on prices. In practice, however, even short-term drops in the ratio can trigger price declines. That’s what we’re seeing now, as June prices fell across all housing categories.
Last Friday’s unemployment announcement was surprisingly strong. There were 83000 job gains. Even though it is mostly part-time, most economists expected no job gains. This decreases the chances of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada at the next meeting on July 30th. The US also had a strong employment report the week before, so at least on the surface the economy seems to be fine and the Federal Reserve can also stand to have a wait-and-see attitude to lowering rates. Seems like both countries are waiting to see the effects of the tariff policies on the economy and that data is still working through the system. It probably won’t show up in the economy until August or September. Because of this I don’t expect a rate cut at the Bank of Canada meeting at the end of the month.
With prices softening and rate cuts increasingly unlikely, the summer may continue to be a wait-and-see season for both buyers and sellers. Enjoy the rest of the month.
