Welcome to the October Metro Vancouver real estate market update.
Vancouver real estate sales continue to be slow but show signs of stabilizing or at least pausing. Sales in October were 14.5% below the 10-year average, compared to 20% below in September — so, relatively speaking, things are looking a little better.
That said, while the number of sales did increase over September, the total number of listings dropped — likely due to listings expiring and not being renewed. As a result, the sales-to-active listings ratio appeared stronger than the month before, but the continued decline in prices tells us the market hasn’t truly improved. All housing types saw price drops month over month, with apartments hit the hardest. Apartment sales were 23.1% lower this October than last year, compared to less than 5% lower for attached homes and townhomes. This reflects the oversupply of condos currently on the market — great news for buyers.
Looking ahead, there’s speculation that the Bank of Canada may deliver one more rate cut before year-end, though it’s equally possible that it won’t happen.
However, a new concern has emerged in B.C. real estate. On August 7th, the Supreme Court of British Columbia ruled in favor of the Cowichan Tribes, declaring that 1,846 acres of land in Richmond belong to them, as it was their historic summer village. The court suspended the declaration for 18 months to allow for an orderly transition through negotiation.
Naturally, any real estate transactions involving that land in the meantime will be complicated. There are already reports of a lender refusing to renew a mortgage and a $100 million development being put on hold due to denied funding. More concerning, though, is the revelation of several ongoing Indigenous land claims involving populated areas such as Kamloops and Sun Peaks. So there may be other land claims quietly working through the courts – largely unnoticed, yet maybe equally disruptive when they surface.
Until these matters are resolved, there’s little need to worry about foreign investment pushing prices higher — because there likely won’t be much of it for a while.
As we reflect on the future of land ownership in B.C., let’s also take a moment to honour the courage and sacrifice of those who defended our freedom.
Have a meaningful Remembrance Day.
