April was another slow month. April sales were 29.1% lower than last April and 43.1% below the 10-year April average.
Sales-to-active listings ratio is 9.4% for detached homes, 15.4% for townhomes and 15.3% for apartments. So, the ratio remained steady for detached homes and townhomes whereas the ratio for apartments has dropped a little more.
The sales remains low but the prices have stabilized for attached and apartments. The one-month benchmark price has not changed for them. However, for detached homes there is a 0.8% decrease.
When you break down the market by price, you see the under 1-million-dollar market is not as bleak. The sale-to-new listing ratio is actually around 20% whereas over 1 M is below 14%. And around 20% indicate a fairly healthy market.
The fundamental factors at play for the last year or so are the same. With the foreign money going elsewhere, the buyers are mainly local residents. And we know they cannot afford the high prices. With property under a million dollars, there is still help from the government in the form of CMHC insurance which allows you to put as little as 5% down for a purchase. Over a million, you need 20% down payment. These are the same reasons why the sales numbers look better the further you go east. Basically, a larger portion of their housing stock are under a million.
The last Bank of Canada meeting confirms the slowing global economic outlook. The overnight rate remained unchanged and the announcement did not mention the possibility of a future rate hike which is now consistent with the Federal Reserve and other major industrial central banks.
I do not see any reasons in the near future why sales would spike; however, the current 12-month percentage drop for the Greater Vancouver detached benchmark price is 11%. During the great recession this maxed out at about 15%. This may be a significant support level for prices. I’ll keep you posted.
